Recently, Beijing and Tianjin Vantage Gas Appliances Co., Ltd. were seized by the court, and the news that the second largest dealer of Vantage lost the news broke out, causing a huge earthquake in the stock price of Vantage. After experiencing a limit, the price of Vantage’s shares fell below 9 again. %, once returned to "before liberation." Coincidentally, as a hard-working brother of the kitchen electric stocks, the boss appliances are also struggling in the shadow of the stock price "scarred" and returning to the level of the second half of 2016.
For the sharp decline of the two major kitchen electric stocks, the triggering reasons are all incidents, such as the boss's electric appliance executives reduce the cash, causing market dissatisfaction, Vantage dealers lost contact, superimposed A shares risk aversion, but undoubtedly also reflects the kitchen The overall environment in which the overall growth of the power industry is weak.
The negative growth trend of kitchen appliances in the first half has been set
In 2017, the overall size of China's kitchen electric appliance industry reached 96.8 billion yuan. The high growth for several years can be described as “fire cookingâ€, which has attracted everyone to look forward to and enter the industry. In the early 2018, Zhong Yikang predicted that if the annual average double-digit growth rate, the kitchen appliance industry in 2018 will cross the threshold of 100 billion, and push into the scale of 150 billion. However, with the "depreciation" of the first half of the kitchen appliance in 2018, Zhongyikang adjusted the forecast to about 115 billion yuan.
In terms of time-phase, in the first quarter of 2018, the kitchen appliance industry experienced the first negative growth in recent years. The offline retail sales of range hoods, gas stoves and disinfection cabinets increased by -16.7%, -7.5%, and -11.9%, respectively. The offline encounter was “extremely coldâ€, even the expected spring home improvement season together with the 3.15 promotion did not bring enough stimulus to the market; at the same time, the online market growth slowed further, taking the smoke stove as an example, the online market The growth rate of retail sales was 20.0% and 25.9%, and the growth rate fell to less than 30%. The online market development encountered bottlenecks caused by factors such as weaker traffic dividends and relatively low product prices. From the overall retail sales of the kitchen appliance market, the overall revenue of 12.8 billion yuan fell 6.1% year-on-year, and the retail sales volume was 13.66 million units, down 3.3% year-on-year.
From April to May, this situation continued. In fact, Shi Ting, the general manager of Zhongyi Kang's kitchen appliance division, used the word “difficult†to define the overall performance of the kitchen appliance market in the first half of 2018. As the growth rate narrowed, the overall market for kitchen appliances was in a cold situation.†According to the performance of the May 1st market, the retail sales of the smoked stoves increased by -9.6%, -8.3& and -12.5%, respectively. The increases were 9.7%, 3.5% and -15.2% respectively. This situation did not change until the arrival of the 6.18 big promotion. However, according to the information disclosed by the industry monitoring agencies, the purchasing enthusiasm of consumers during the middle of the year was still not as good as in previous years.
Shi Ting believes that the kitchen electricity market is still dominated by new demand, and the proportion of replacement demand is still low. The new market corresponds to the sale of existing homes in the past six months to one year. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2015 and 2016, the sales growth of existing homes in the country was above 20%. In the first quarter of 2017, the sales of existing homes increased by 1.7% year-on-year. However, with the introduction of strict control policies for many real estates, the existing homes in 2017 are available. The sales area fell by 2.2% year-on-year. In 2018, the trend of tight real estate growth continued. This impact will continue to be transmitted to the kitchen appliance market, and overall sales in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions have shown a downward trend. Taking the case of Vantage as an example, some analysts believe that the dealers’ “running†and sales pressures are too large, the inventory is heavily backed up, and the financial pressure is too high. Vantage's quarterly report showed that Vantage received 1.424 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 23% year-on-year; net profit was 115 million yuan, up 50% year-on-year. The company expects profit of 3.07-354 million yuan in the first half of 2018, up 30% year-on-year. %. However, with the fermentation of the "event", some financial people believe that Vantage adopts the agency sales model, taking delivery as the basis for sales, and passing the risk of slow sales to dealers, so the real growth rate may be overestimated.
The other kitchen power company, the boss's first quarter report revenue is also slightly lower than market expectations. In the first quarter, it achieved 1.593 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.89%, and net profit reached 302 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.05% - compared with the past 40% growth rate has not been the same.
Similarly, in the US group survey disclosed by China Merchants Securities, it showed that the overall income of the US from January to May increased by about 15% year-on-year, and the growth rate of the original US business was 15-20%. Among them, air-conditioning is the backbone, with a growth rate of 30%; ice washing growth of 10%; only kitchen and small household appliances grow flat, "kitchen power is affected by industry sentiment, channel inventory and price increase factors, a small decline", industry boom Was ranked first in the negative factors.
Competition has intensified
The restriction of real estate factors not only affects the growth of traditional smoke stoves, but also the suppression effect is reflected in the emerging categories such as dishwashers and embedded micro-boiled. In 2017, the overall growth rate of dishwashers was 129%, but in the first half of 2018, the growth rate dropped sharply, up 28.8% year-on-year. The overall scale was 1.73 billion yuan, of which the online scale was 630 million, an increase of 76.6% year-on-year; 1.14 billion, an increase of 12%. The overall revenue of the microwave oven industry decreased by 2.3% year-on-year; the growth rate of embedded ovens in the first half of the year was 0.7%, and the scale was 1.18 billion; the embedded steamer increased by 3.3% year-on-year and the scale reached 1.14 billion. Yang Wei, director of the Ovi Kitchen Electric Division, believes that the consumer groups of embedded kitchen appliances are mainly concentrated in the more developed regions of the first and second-tier economies, and the constraints of real estate have a greater impact on them.
Under the general trend of slowing growth in the first and second-tier markets, many kitchen appliances brands have set their sights on the third- and fourth-tier markets. It is reported that in 2017, the retail sales of home appliances in the third and fourth grades reached 485.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, and the retail scale exceeded the urban market for the first time.
However, as everyone has turned their attention to this market, the competition between brands has also extended from the first and second markets. In a small county town of Hebei Province with a population of less than 500,000, it has been spread over Fangtai, Midea, Haier, Vantage, Siemens, Germany and Italy, Jiuyang and other large and small kitchen appliances stores, in addition to the positive layout of Jingdong and Suning Yi Buy and sell e-commerce direct stores, local traditional home appliances stores. A shop owner said: "As long as you want to buy, we have everything here." However, he also revealed that in the county market, consumers are still most often purchasing basic smoke products, "If you move to the building It must be equipped with a range hood and a gas stove; it doesn't matter in the bungalow. However, now you don't want to burn coal, either use electricity or use gas, and definitely choose more gas stoves." The view of kitchen appliances, he mentioned, "disinfection cabinets, dishwashers and other products we will stock, but sales are few."
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