Recently, the downturn of the auto market has become the main theme of the industry, but new energy vehicles have become the only bright color of the traditional "Golden Nine Silver Ten".
September sales data showed that the sales of new energy vehicles reached 121,000 units, a year-on-year surge of 90%. Although the industry-wide data for October has not yet been released, the sales figures of major new energy vehicle companies are still gratifying. For example, BYD announced yesterday that sales of new energy vehicles reached 26,000 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 121%. Chery 10 The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the month also exceeded 10,000, a year-on-year increase of 379.1%. Even the new car maker Weilai is already accelerating the delivery.
In the first nine months of this year, the sales of new energy vehicles have exceeded 710,000 units. It is not difficult to predict that in 2018, the sales of new energy vehicles will be much better than the 800,000 mark previously estimated by the industry, and will challenge the million mark. .
However, although the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market is gratifying, yesterday's news still poured a little cold water on the industry. According to online news, the subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2019 will drop significantly compared to this year, and the overall decline may even be as high as 40%. The new energy vehicle market, which has been supported by subsidies, will face heavy pressure next year because of the accelerated decline of subsidies. , has become the focus of industry debate.
For this reason, some industry research experts predict that although the subsidy decline is inevitable, if the sales of electric vehicles reach 2 million in 2020, the compound growth rate will be close to 30%, and the development prospects of new energy vehicles after the subsidy decline can still be optimistic. .
Will pure electric vehicles be under heavy pressure?
According to the plan, my country's new energy vehicle subsidies will be fully reduced in 2020. Correspondingly, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the "Administrative Measures for the Parallel Management of Passenger Vehicle Enterprises' Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points". Minister Miao Wei of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has previously introduced , this method is to deal with the market-based subsidy mechanism for the development of new energy vehicles after the withdrawal of government subsidies after 2020.
That is to say, the general trend of subsidy decline and double-point transaction replacement will not change, but how the subsidy is withdrawn and whether the magnitude of the subsidy will directly affect the sales of new energy vehicles has been a long-term concern in the industry. Yesterday, some media quoted sources as saying that in 2019, the overall subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by as much as 40%, and new energy vehicles may usher in a major test next year. However, there is currently no official clarification or denial of this news. According to past practice, the subsidy policy of the year will generally be announced and implemented in the same year (for example, the subsidy policy in 2018 will only be implemented in July this year). There are still many unknowns about the specific subsidy situation.
However, the reporter also learned that in terms of the current subsidy policy, the subsidy policy is still obviously inclined for models with a longer pure electric cruising range.
Taking the subsidy scheme in 2018 as an example, the subsidy can be enjoyed with a pure electric cruising range of more than 150 kilometers. Among them, the pure electric cruising range is between 300 kilometers (inclusive) and 400 kilometers (exclusive), and the national subsidy amount is 4. 50,000 yuan, 400 kilometers (inclusive) or more, the national supplement is as high as 50,000 yuan.
Compared with 2017, the model with pure electric cruising range of 150 kilometers (inclusive) to 200 kilometers (exclusive), the subsidy in 2018 decreased by 58%, while in 2017 compared with 2016, the decrease was only 20%, but in the network transmission In the plan, pure electric models with a range of less than 200 kilometers in 2019 will no longer enjoy subsidies, and the decline will continue to increase.
Taking a vehicle with a cruising range of 200 kilometers (inclusive) to 250 kilometers as an example, the subsidy in 2018 decreased by 33% compared with the previous year, and in 2017, it decreased by 20% compared with the previous year, but the network transmission plan shows that in 2019 only 1. The subsidy amount of 50,000 yuan has dropped by 38%, and the decline has also continued to increase.
In the range of 300 kilometers (inclusive) to 400 kilometers (exclusive), the subsidy in 2018 increased by 2% compared with the previous year, reaching 45,000 yuan, and in 2017, it decreased by 20% compared with the previous year, but the network transmission plan shows that In 2019, only 34,000 yuan of subsidy is left, a 24% drop from this year, a significant drop.
The network transmission plan also shows that when the cruising range reaches more than 400 kilometers, you can enjoy a subsidy of 45,000 yuan, and only when the cruising range reaches 500 kilometers can you enjoy the top subsidy of 50,000 yuan.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the All-China Passenger Federation, believes that if this plan is followed, the subsidy adjustment for pure electric passenger vehicles will be greater in 2019. Good development, "therefore, the actual subsidy adjustment will still have a greater impact on A00-class vehicles, and vehicles with 300≤R<400 (R is pure electric mileage, unit: km) enjoy a subsidy of 34,000 yuan. The amount dropped by 23%, which has a huge impact on A0-class SUVs and A-class vehicles, and the pressure on such subsidies is obvious.â€
In the future, the growth rate of new energy vehicles will be compounded by 30%
Although it is unclear how the specific subsidy decline will be finalized next year, the industry is changing rapidly, and how car companies can stand firm in the post-subsidy era is a problem that the current industry needs to think about.
Although the impact of subsidies is still unknown, from the perspective of industrial investment, new energy vehicles are still a favorite. Nandu reporter learned from a new energy vehicle industry salon held by Bedrock Capital that for the capital market, the new energy vehicle industry with a growth rate of 40 to 50 percent must be considered a "very golden" in the industry. Chance,
Fan Bo, investment director of Bedrock Capital, who has been engaged in new energy vehicle investment and research for a long time, believes that although the subsidies for new energy vehicles will decline, the "use" of subsidies will become more and more high-quality. Vehicle financial subsidies, and the adjustment direction is tilted towards passenger vehicles with high energy density and high battery life. Since the annual production and sales of electric passenger vehicles is relatively stable at about 100,000 vehicles per year, the purpose of the policy is to support high-quality electric passenger vehicles with international competitiveness. car companies."
While the new energy vehicle market has entered an intense "game period", it is also gradually ushering in a post-subsidy era, with subsidies declining and double credits relaying. It is still a very good opportunity. "If it is calculated based on the sales volume of passenger cars of about 27 million units, according to the policy requirements, the dual-point system will be implemented next year, according to the prescribed ratio of 10% (Reporter's Note: According to "The Average Passenger Car Enterprises" "Measures for the Parallel Management of Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points", the requirements for new energy vehicle points in 2019-2020 are 10% and 12% respectively), the demand for negative fuel consumption points and new energy positive points is 4.22 million points, according to one vehicle If we can provide a 3-point calculation, then the production requirement of new energy vehicles next year will be 1.41 million."
Officially driven by dual credits, car companies still need to produce more high-quality, high-endurance, and cost-effective mileage new energy vehicles to "fill" the negative impact of lost subsidies. This figure is very consistent with the number estimated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the target set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is to reach 2 million sales, which is exactly this value." Fan Bo added. Once, the subsidy-driven new energy vehicle market had a compound growth rate of about 50% from 2015 to 2018. "In 2020, 2 million electric vehicles will be sold, with an output value of about 370 billion, and the compound growth rate will be close to 30%, and the corresponding The market space for lithium batteries is also very large." Fan Bo believes that even if the so-called downturn in the auto market occurs recently, the certainty that new energy vehicles will maintain high growth in the future is still very high.
2020 will be a critical year for product launch
Fan Bo further analyzed that, from the perspective of global pure electric vehicles, the competitive landscape is still very chaotic, "until the emergence of Tesla Model 3, the world's electric vehicles have the first phenomenal model. "As for the domestic aspect, the top sales in 2017 were mainly A00 and A0-class miniature electric vehicles, which were inconsistent with the direction of financial subsidies to make them bigger and stronger. The price of A00 and A0-class subsidy is less than 100,000, mainly from the preemption of limited licenses. The demand for new energy vehicle license plates in cities and the demand for travel platforms, in Fan Bo's view, such market composition is not sustainable, "The domestic new energy passenger vehicle market structure is uncertain, from the absolute value of sales, There has not yet been a model with a stable monthly sales of 10,000 to 20,000 units in China.â€
From the perspective of time node, Fan Bo believes that 2020 will be a critical year for many international giants to have competitive products.
Taking Mercedes-Benz as an example, its first pure electric mainstream SUV EQC will be launched next year. By 2022, all models will provide electric models, while Volkswagen will produce 2-3 million electric vehicles per year by 2025. Among them, Volkswagen Shanghai The Anting Tramway Plant invested 17 billion yuan to build a production line with a production capacity of 300,000 vehicles, which will be put into operation in 2020. Tesla alone invested 14 billion yuan in Shanghai Lingang to build a production line with a production capacity of 250,000 vehicles to produce Model 3 and Model Y The model is also expected to go into production in 2020. "After the subsidy is withdrawn in 2020, domestic small and micro electric vehicles that use state subsidies will withdraw from the market, and domestic globally competitive manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, GAC Trumpchi, and SAIC Roewe will participate in international competition." Fan Bo also pointed out Several highly competitive independent brands in China.
So, how do professionals in the automotive industry view this rapidly changing landscape? To this end, the reporter also interviewed Dr. Chen Hu of the New Energy Analysis Section of GAC Research Institute.
Chen Hu believes that car companies that can gain competitiveness must first solve the experience problems related to users. "The first is that the battery life is long, and users are most worried about the problem of power when the car is driving on the highway. The second is that the human-computer interaction experience is very important. There are still differences between electric vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles. How to remove the noise from the performance to make the driving feel better, and the third is to maintain the control performance of the battery and the motor to make it work in harmony , These are technically very challenging at this stage, so I think that if the whole vehicle can extend the battery life to the human-computer interaction experience, the handling performance of the whole vehicle chassis will be better, and the whole vehicle will be more powerful. Competitive."
As for whether the new car manufacturers that have emerged in recent years will become an important force in the new energy car market, Chen Hu believes that new car companies will pay more attention to the shape of the car and the human-computer interaction experience. "For traditional car companies, the advantage lies in The structure of the vehicle, its handling, and the management of suppliers. In addition, it has its own advantages in terms of zero inventory and production line management.†He believes that in the near future, traditional car companies will still have more advantages, but not Exclude new car companies like Tesla that are particularly good in electronic control technology.
Regarding whether 2020 can become the year of accelerated popularization of new energy vehicles, Dr. Chen Hu of the New Energy Analysis Section of GAC Research Institute believes that the popularization of new energy vehicles mainly involves the following points: The first is the acceptance from users, and the charging piles There are many considerations, and it may take two or three years for the charging pile to be fully laid; the second electric vehicle battery is safe and prone to fire and explosion. Although the probability is very low, the battery needs to be better in safety, but the development of the battery This piece may take a little longer.
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