Shangpu Consulting: The future of China's cable industry is bright

Foreword:

Although the wire and cable industry is only a supporting industry, it occupies a large proportion of the output value. It has a wide range of products and a wide range of applications. It covers electric power, construction, communications, and manufacturing, and is closely related to various sectors of the national economy.

Wire and cable is called the "artery" and "nerve" of the national economy. It is an indispensable basic equipment for the transmission of electric energy, transmission of information, and the manufacture of various motors, instruments, and meters to achieve electromagnetic energy conversion. It is the future of electrification and informatization. The necessary basic products in society.

The status of the cable industry

　　 The wire and cable industry is the second largest industry after the automotive industry, with product variety satisfaction rates and market share exceeding 90%. In the world, China's total output value of wire and cable has surpassed that of the United States and has become the world's largest wire and cable producer. With the rapid development of China's wire and cable industry, the number of newly added companies has continued to rise, and the industry’s overall technological level has been improved.

Cable industry major breakdown industry

1, wind power cable

Figure 2 The main performance requirements and materials selection for wind power cables

Wind wire and cable

The main performance requirements of wind power cables used in harsh climate conditions, cold temperatures, large temperature difference between day and night, it should have good low temperature resistance, can withstand -40 °C low temperature, and UV, weather aging performance.

Wind power cables are divided into mobile and fixed installation cables depending on the application. The cable for movement needs to be frequently twisted, so it should have good torsion resistance and bending performance

Sometimes it is exposed to oil stains. Under special circumstances, it will suffer seawater corrosion. It should be resistant to oil and corrosion.

Good flame retardancy

Selection of materials The conductors can be made of Category 5 or Category 6 flexible copper conductors as specified in GB/T 3956. The surface of the conductors should be smooth, free from oil contamination and damage-free insulation burrs, and twisted and twisted and twisted structures are used for sizes of 6mm2 and above.

Insulation using ethylene propylene rubber or silicone rubber, with excellent resistance to ozone and heat aging

Sheathed with chlorinated polyethylene, neoprene or chlorosulfonated polyethylene, with oil resistance and cold resistance

2, power cable

Power Cable Name Voltage Rating Application

Low-voltage power cables 1 kV and below are used in power, metallurgy, machinery, construction and other industries; about 50% of the distribution network for power systems, power from high-voltage substations to cities and remote areas; the rest for the construction industry, machinery, Metallurgical, chemical and petrochemical enterprises

Most of 3-35kV medium-voltage power cables are used in high-voltage distribution networks in cities; some are used for internal power supply of large-scale enterprises, such as large-scale steel and petrochemical enterprises, etc.
High-voltage power cables 66-330kV are mainly used for the outgoing lines of large-scale power plants. Economic developed countries such as Europe and the United States have also used them for high-power loads in mega cities

Ultra-high voltage power cable 330-500kV Shanghai, Beijing and other domestic super-large cities also intend to use ultra-high voltage cable for urban transmission and distribution network

Problems in the cable industry:

According to Niu Xiaohui, industry analyst of Shangpu Consultant, from the perspective of the development level of the entire industry, the cable industry has low concentration, decentralized technology, and low technological content. On the contrary, due to the fact that developed countries such as Europe, the United States, Japan, and other developed countries have already achieved high levels of industrialization, the infrastructure is very complete, the degree of urbanization is high, the economic growth rate is slow, and the cable industry has gone through a history of more than a hundred years, so along with the economy With the development of integration, the market competition is very fierce. In the industry, there is a marked polarization and the market concentration is relatively high. The above facts have determined that the domestic cable industry is highly competitive in the internal market.

There are more than 9,800 small and medium wire and cable enterprises in China. Due to lack of R&D capabilities, most of these companies are struggling with low-end products. Therefore, product prices have become a magic weapon for many SMEs. As the wire and cable is a typical heavy-duty, light-weight industry, the price of raw materials accounts for about 80% of the total cost. Therefore, the quality of raw materials affects the quality of wire and cable products to a great extent. The reason why small companies can provide ultra-low-cost products is nothing more than making a fuss about raw materials. The quality of products can be imagined. In the recent period, the prices of metal materials have risen, and some companies have experienced phenomena of inferior packaging.

Cable industry prospects:

　　 The power industry has long been a pillar industry and occupies an important position in the national economy. With the rapid economic development, the wire and cable manufacturing industry has also grown rapidly as an important part of the power industry's industrial chain. In particular, in recent years, the global economy has faced bottlenecks in energy and power shortages, and the country has continuously increased The investment in power has enabled the industry to enter a period of rapid development.

1, increase the overhead line.

The inter-provincial, northern, central and southern provinces and the gradual realization of the nationwide, a large number of applications of ultra-high voltage, large capacity overhead lines (Northwest 750KV lines, 500KV lines in the rest of the region) will make the overhead line in a 10% increase.

2. The medium voltage 10~35KV cable will increase by 8-10% of the ring speed.

The use of dual-ring power supply in metropolitan areas and the increase of underground cable ratios in urban centers will greatly increase the use of medium voltage cables. At present, most urban planning departments have emphasized the power supply of underground cables in urban areas. Some cities have already included this requirement in local regulations, which has brought great opportunities for medium-voltage distribution cables.

3. The construction industry has become one of China's pillar industries in the early 21st century. It will provide opportunities for cables for construction lines and other electrical equipment.

In recent years, China's real estate industry has been growing rapidly. In addition to residential housing, the number of commercial office buildings has also increased significantly. The intelligent demand for housing, together with the construction of various professional networks, brings a great market for wires and cables. It is expected that the output of construction wiring will exceed 15% in the wire and cable industry in the future.

4. The auto industry will become a new economic growth point in China, and it will bring about rapid development of automotive lines and enameled wires.

There are two main types of lines used in the automotive and motorcycle industry: enameled wire and automotive wire. The automotive industry has greatly increased the sales of enameled wire and automotive wire. In the next few years, its demand will continue to grow at around 10%.

5. The increase in the level of major technical equipment for China’s railways provides a market for electrified locomotives for copper alloy contact lines, locomotives and vehicles, and winding lines.

6. Wire and cable for nuclear power plants have a certain amount of demand.

According to the estimation of the quadrupling of China's GDP in 2020, it is estimated that the permanent magnet ferrite material with a power generation capacity of approximately 8-8.5 billion can be used instead of the Japanese product tile. However, there is currently no installed capacity. To this standard, there will be a gap of 32 to 40 million kilowatts, based on the proven reserves of hydropower resources and the maximum installed capacity of coal-fired thermal power.

In 2010, nuclear power installed capacity will reach 20 million kilowatts, and by 2020 nuclear power will reach 40 million kilowatts, accounting for around 5% of the total capacity of the fashion machine.

7. The development of the shipbuilding industry will bring vitality to marine cables, while the replacement of marine cables will accelerate.

8. The industrial development will increase the use of electric motors and the upgrading of household electrical appliance products. The conversion of the motor insulation class from Class B to Class F will accelerate the upgrading of the enameled wire and will promote the steady development of the winding market.

9. The development of the city will drive the development of urban rail transit and will promote the application of various flame-retardant cables. The use of electric lighting cables for tunnels and subway stations is also a major highlight.

Wire and cable are widely used in energy, transportation, information and communication, construction, railways, urban rail, automobile, aviation, metallurgy, petrochemical and many other industrial fields, so the demand for wire and cable is still growing rapidly.

In the next few years, there will be good market demand for new network construction and old network transformation, but a good market does not mean that the company's life will be better. Only those companies that keep up with the times and can always maintain their ability to innovate can win the market and achieve rapid growth.

Shang Xiaopu consulting industry analyst Niu Xiaohui suggested: First of all, the industry needs to carry out effective strategic integration, form a dominant brand, and enhance the company's market response capabilities.

The second is that enterprises should strengthen self-discipline and establish an industry supervision mechanism. It is recommended that relevant government departments and trade associations should have a supervision mechanism and establish an effective normative governance mechanism among government agencies, industry associations, and enterprises.

The third is to promote the application of new technologies, new processes, and new materials through accelerated governance and independent innovation, and accelerate the development of new products so that the competitiveness of enterprises can be improved as quickly as possible.