As of the first half of this year, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP has been reduced by 13% on the basis of 2005. The 11% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP is expected to be achieved. Under the new target standard, if we do not consider the change in energy structure, China only needs to reduce the energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20%-25% in the decade from 2010 to 2020. Therefore, this emission target is still within a reasonable range.
On the 25th, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council presided over the State Council executive meeting to study and deploy the work on climate change, and decided to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of China's unit GDP by 40%-45% by 2020, and propose corresponding policy measures and actions.
As of the first half of this year, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP has been reduced by 13% on the basis of 2005. The 11% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP is expected to be achieved. Under the new target standard, if we do not consider the change in energy structure, China only needs to reduce the energy consumption per unit of GDP by 20%-25% in the decade from 2010 to 2020. Therefore, this emission target is still within a reasonable range. We believe that there are several means to achieve the goal: 1. China's current energy consumption level still has a large room for decline, and there is still potential to be tapped; 2. According to the plan proposed by China, non-fossil energy accounts for primary energy consumption by 2020. The proportion is about 15%, which can directly reduce emissions. 3. Afforestation increases carbon sinks. China proposes that by 2020, the forest area will increase by 40 million hectares compared with 2005.
With the comprehensive promotion of the low-carbon economy, green lighting has also received the attention of governments. In order to achieve a low-carbon economy in the field of lighting, governments have proposed and implemented green lighting projects. Various countries and regions have formulated policies to support the development of the LED lighting industry. Since 1996, the Chinese government has organized and implemented green lighting projects, and listed them in the key areas of energy conservation in the 9th and 15th and 10th key energy-saving projects in the 11th Five-Year Plan. In October this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and other six ministries and commissions issued the "Opinions on the Development of Semiconductor Lighting Energy-Saving Industry", aiming to promote the healthy and orderly development of China's semiconductor lighting energy-saving industry, foster new economic growth points and promote energy conservation and emission reduction. The opinion proposes that it will develop and promote alternative semiconductor lighting styling products with remarkable energy-saving effects such as incandescent lamps and tungsten halogen lamps; and develop and promote functional semiconductor lighting styling products with high performance requirements and long lighting time such as parking tunnels and roads. Development of medium-sized LCD backlights, automotive lighting and other semiconductor lighting products with high growth potential; development of medical, agricultural and other special-purpose semiconductor lighting products.
China has successively launched green lighting engineering and semiconductor lighting engineering, and has supported the research and development and industrialization of semiconductor lighting technology in the fields of ten key energy-saving projects, high-tech industrialization demonstration projects, enterprise technology upgrades and structural adjustment projects, and new materials for 863 projects. The project has a good R&D foundation, initially formed a complete industrial chain, and has certain advantages in downstream integration applications. In 2008, the total output value of China's semiconductor lighting was nearly 70 billion yuan, of which the output value of chips was 1.9 billion yuan, the output value of packaging was 18.5 billion yuan, and the output value of applied products was 45 billion yuan. In recent years, the domestic LED application industry has developed rapidly. The annual growth rate of domestic LEDs before 2000 was more than 30%. From 2000 to 2006, the annual growth rate was about 15%, and the increase in 2007-2008 was over 40%. In 2008, the national LED display application market reached a new high, with a total amount of 10 billion yuan. The level of industrialization of industry development has been improved. In 2008, the number and scale of large-scale enterprises in the LED display application industry increased significantly. There are 25 companies with sales of over 100 million yuan in the industry, and 7 of them have sales of more than 200 million yuan.
Overall, the industrial development of the LED application industry has reached a scale of scale, the development of key technology products is relatively mature, and the product quality and reliability have been significantly improved.
According to the "Opinions on the Development of Semiconductor Lighting Energy-Saving Industry", by 2015, the average annual growth rate of the output value of semiconductor lighting energy-saving industry will be around 30%; the market share of products will increase year by year, the functional lighting will reach 20%, and the LCD backlight will reach 50% or more. The market share of landscape decoration and other products has reached more than 70%; the independent innovation capability of enterprises has been significantly enhanced, large-scale MOCVD equipment, key raw materials and more than 70% of chips have been localized, and 3-5 upstream chip-scale production enterprises; industrial concentration Significantly improved, about 10 leading enterprises with independent brands and greater market influence; initially established a semiconductor lighting standard system; achieving annual energy saving of 40 billion kWh, equivalent to 40 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year.
According to the trend of national policies, development goals and the distribution of profits in the LED industry, we believe that the main investment line of the LED lighting industry is those enterprises with leading technology and scale advantages and located in the upstream of the LED industry. Because the LED industry industry profits are concentrated in the upstream. The upper, middle and lower reaches of the LED industry chain are epitaxial materials and chip processing, industrial device and module packaging, display and lighting applications. Upstream industry epitaxial materials and chip manufacturing belong to technology and capital-intensive industries; midstream industrial devices and module packaging, as well as downstream industry display and lighting applications, are technical and labor-intensive industries. The LED industry has a wide range of upstream and downstream links. Upstream products are extremely difficult in technology, with high difficulty, high investment and high risk. In some aspects, the technical difficulty is extremely high, the process precision is extremely high, and the technology and equipment are highly dependent, while the middle and downstream applications enter. Barriers are low and lack core technology. Due to technology and barriers to entry, LED epitaxial wafers and chips account for about 70% of the industry's profits, LED packaging accounts for about 10-20%, and LED applications account for about 10-20%. The Chinese LED industry started in the 1980s. Start with the downstream package and gradually enter the upstream epitaxial wafer production. 2000 began to increase investment in high-brightness quaternary chips and GaN chips. Because the enterprises located in the upper reaches of the LED enjoy 70% of the profits of the industry, they can share the high growth of the industry to the greatest extent. Listed companies related to domestic LED upstream business include Sanan Optoelectronics (600703), Lianchuang Optoelectronics (600363), Silan Micro (600460), Tongfang (600100), Fangda A (000055) and Tianfu Thermal Power (600509).
It should be noted that the LED industry is a technology-intensive industry. High technology has created a high monopoly in the industry, especially in the upstream industry to obtain higher profits. However, once technological advances have caused the industry to enter barriers to decline, competitiveness will increase, and profit margins will drop significantly. Downstream demand and product prices are constrained by the state of global economic development. The global economic downturn will lead to a downturn in the industry.
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