Once the EU "double-reverse" bill is established, there will be a large number of enterprises facing the dilemma of bankruptcy. In order to avoid the risk of being completely destroyed, the photovoltaic enterprises represented by Yingli Green Energy have already begun to lay out emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
30% of enterprises closed down
According to conservative estimates in the industry, once the EU "double-reverse" bill is established, it will cause more than 30% of Chinese PV companies to close down. The direct loss from the PV trade will be as high as $20 billion, and 300,000 people will be unemployed.
The root cause of this serious consequence is the deformed industrial structure in which China's PV companies are over-reliant on overseas markets. Once the supply and demand are out of balance, the entire industry is hit hard. Especially those companies that operate large and full and extensively will be eliminated faster.
Wang Junchao, general manager of Shenzhen Dazu Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. asserted that some large enterprises with problems in the capital chain tend to have weaker ability to withstand pressure, and may even be the first to fail.
"In the face of the resurgence of the EU's double-reverse, small and medium-sized enterprises are free to choose to temporarily suspend production. When the contradiction between supply and demand is moderated and the price is reasonable, they will be re-produced. Only in this way can they escape the catastrophe." Wang Junchao stressed.
But for large companies, the status quo is even more severe. Once they stop production, it means that the company is about to die, because the most sensitive financial companies, such as banks and funds, will collect loans in the first time after the large enterprises stop production, and there is a scene of “walls downâ€, not unpredictable. . Therefore, even if these large enterprises lose money, they will not choose to stop production, but must choose to die.
Therefore, the enterprises that can finally survive should be managed by companies that are able to keep up with scale, technology and economic strength.
Shen Hui, dean of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Sun Yat-sen University, estimates that between the second half of this year and the first half of next year, a large number of enterprises will face a crisis of bankruptcy. "This EU's 'double-reverse' will be more serious than the earlier US double-reverse's, and its 'double-reverse' range includes silicon wafers, batteries and components, covering almost the entire PV industry chain. Compared with some small and medium-sized enterprises and integrated enterprises with terminal markets, enterprises with large scale and only photovoltaic single products will bear the brunt."
In fact, not only is the Chinese PV industry unable to bear punitive tariffs, but the entire PV industry chain in the EU is not immune.
On May 24th, the spokesperson of the European Association of Cheap Solar Energy publicly raised objections and said that the double-reverse would harm the overall interests of the European PV industry. The punitive tariffs would cause Europe to lose at least 200,000 jobs.
The "voting" of the EU member states' taxation on China's photovoltaics on June 6 (actual position statement, informal vote) showed that among the 27 member states, 18 countries opposed, 4 countries supported, and 5 countries abstained. Although, according to EU law, the opinions of member states cannot influence the EU's decision at the preliminary stage, the attitude of member states is already clear.
Expanding emerging markets
Although everything in the future is still unknown, China's PV companies have long made the worst plans to significantly reduce European expected shipments and actively explore emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
"After last year in the United States to determine the double-reverse, some domestic companies worried that the EU will follow the pace of the United States and continue to launch a double-reverse against China, so they have taken some countermeasures in advance." Shen Hui said.
Expanding emerging markets has become one of the important ways for companies to avoid risks. Overseas construction and overseas OEMs can not only avoid the impact of “double oppositionâ€, but also provide a good opportunity to expand the dominant position and market share for the manufacturers with real technology, brand and capacity strength due to the general increase in tax rate.
In fact, in 2011, China's exports of PV modules to the EU accounted for 70% of China's total PV manufacturing; by 2012, the EU market accounted for about 50% of China's PV industry shipments; 2013 is expected to be reduced to 30%.
Take Jinko Energy as an example. They started to actively deploy emerging markets when the double-reverse topic started a year ago, and it is expected that shipments in Europe will drop from around 50% last year to 20%. Today, Jinko Energy has already harvested several projects in South Africa, India, Japan, Canada and other countries.
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