The TD-LTE license has been issued for almost half a year. The various forecasts for China's 4G license pattern are still relished by the media. The LTE-FDD license is issued after the 5.17 World Telecommunication Day and many media have made predictions. Government decision-making has added some mysterious variables. Subsequently, the operational data of the three major operators in April were announced one after another. Although the new users of China Mobile are leading the way, it is difficult to conceal the trend that the incremental space of the entire industry is rapidly shrinking. Then, CCTV mainly focused on China Mobile's 4G network speed survey and announced its 4G network of 100 megabits per second. This undoubtedly aggravated the market's wait-and-see attitude towards 4G.
China 4G, are you really coming?
China hopes to start a more powerful growth in the information consumer market by launching 4G. However, under the impetus of China Mobile’s almost great leap forward, 4G’s pulling effect is obviously unsatisfactory. According to the data of April 2014 released by the three major operators, China Mobile added 3.531 million new customers in April, and the total number of customers reached 7.84613 billion. The net increase of 3G users was 7.003 million, and the total number of 3G users reached 2.31979 billion. The net increase of 4G users was 2.005 million, with a total of 4.798 million. China Telecom's mobile subscribers lost another 1.03 million in April, and the total number dropped to 182.17 million. From January to April 2014, the total number of mobile subscribers decreased by 3.41 million. In April, the number of 3G subscribers increased by only 830,000, with a total of 1.0497 billion. China Unicom's mobile subscribers increased by 895,000 in April, with cumulative users reaching 2.9588 billion; 3G/4G subscribers increased by 2.11 million, with a total of 134.41 million.
Regardless of the changes in the pattern of the three major operators, from the perspective of the three new users, the rapid expansion of the telecom industry is clearly approaching the peak. China Mobile's TD-LTE network construction has not really promoted the new spurt growth of the telecom industry, but it has increased the choice between users in 3G networks and 4G networks to some extent. CCTV's report on the 4G network speed survey has made users more confused. According to tests conducted by CCTV in many places in Beijing, China Mobile claims that the TD-LTE bandwidth of 100 megabits per second is actually less than one-third, and even many places are not as good as the 3G network speed of China Unicom. No wonder many netizens ask: China 4G, are you really coming?
Why is this situation happening? Many analyses point the core issue to China Mobile’s dangerous Great Leap Forward 4G network construction strategy. According to China Mobile's plan, before the end of 2014, the total number of TD-LTE base stations built by China Mobile will exceed 500,000. Not long ago, Guo Guohua, chairman of China Mobile Communications Corporation, said that TD-LTE expects to build 800,000 base stations worldwide in 2014, covering a population of 3 billion. This plan is beyond the imagination of most people. In the context of the difficulty of simultaneous expansion of the industrial chain, China Mobile has almost promised an impossible task. Behind this kind of spurt is that China Mobile is far behind the disparity of China Unicom in the 3G era, but whether it can be successful or the cost of success, there are not many people who suck up a cold air.
It is worth mentioning that many analyses blame the TD-LTE start on the negative follow-up of China Telecom and China Unicom on TD-LTE. The “dead†LTE-FDD license, this seemingly logical conclusion is a blind. Compared with China Mobile's "quick success", China Telecom and China Unicom's steady pace of network construction is easily rendered as passive, LTE-FDD and even TD-LTE. In fact, for China Telecom and China Unicom, TD-LTE and LTE-FDD are not mutually antagonistic from the beginning. Wang Xiaochu, chairman of China Telecom, clarified the planning of China Telecom's hybrid networking as early as June last year. China Unicom executives also pointed out the concept of hybrid networking. Of course, it is reflected in the speed of TD-LTE network construction. Telecom China Unicom does not appear to be "positive", but this is because compared with China Mobile's "rich economy", Telecom Unicom's investment in 3G network construction and operation has not recovered its cost. Capital pressure has always been stretched. From all aspects, the hybrid network with the best cost-benefit effect cannot be promoted, so that Telecom Unicom can only be trapped in passive or even beaten situations in the 4G field.
Oppose FDD and TDD to make Telecom Unicom encounter a paradox trap
For China Telecom and China Unicom, the biggest paradox is that if you develop LTE-FDD, it is impossible to develop TD-LTE, and the two will be opposed to each other, resulting in various criticisms of the industry's call for LTE-FDD licenses. . In fact, at the beginning of the LTE standard design, the International Standards Organization required TD-LTE and LTE-FDD modes to maintain a high degree of consistency to facilitate the implementation of the TDD/FDD dual-mode LTE system. The core network of TD-LTE and LTE-FDD is exactly the same. The technology of wireless network is more than 90% common. The main difference between the two is that the wireless side sends and receives different information, which makes TD-LTE and LTE-FDD only in some low-level designs. There is a difference of about 10%. Therefore, the difference between the two modes of FDD and TDD is fundamentally different from the difference between the three standards of the 3G era. It is not scientific in itself to oppose the two.
Since the frequency band of LTE-FDD is relatively lower, the coverage performance is better, but the bandwidth is narrower, and the TD-LTE spectrum is relatively high, the coverage is limited, but the bandwidth is larger, and a larger capacity can be provided as the capacity layer. The advantages of LTE-FDD and TD-LTE can be exerted to form a synergy. Therefore, the current global TDD/FDD hybrid networking has become a trend, and basically adopts LTE-FDD for network coverage and TD-LTE for hotspot expansion.
Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, also pointed out that the international trend in the future is the convergence of LTE-FDD and TD-LTE. Similarly, China will definitely not be a single network in the future. However, when to issue LTE-FDD licenses depends on the preparations of China Telecom and China Unicom. From the current point of view, 4G competition is actually a one-man show of China Mobile. Even if the LTE-FDD license is issued now, due to the lag of network construction, it will take at least half a year for China Telecom and China Unicom to truly participate in the 4G competition. Will have a significant impact. Therefore, the issuance of LTE-FDD licenses as soon as possible is not only the direct appeal of China Telecom and China Unicom, but also related to the effective competition and overall development of China's 4G industry.
Due to lack of funds and technical restrictions, China Telecom and China Unicom have limited support for TD-LTE. Although China Mobile's 4G coverage is limited, there are also many shortcomings in terminals and packages. However, with the dual advantages of capital and propaganda, mobile can fully attract the large-scale migration of Unicom Telecom users through substantial subsidies. In the long run for a long time, the communication market will present a situation in which mobile completely monopolizes the 4G market.
Open competition is the real engine to enhance the competitiveness of the information industry
The telecommunications industry is a special industry driven by competition and demand-driven innovation. As soon as the competition between TD-LTE and LTE-FDD is released, it will undoubtedly enhance the vitality of market participants and effectively promote the leap-forward development of the domestic electronic equipment manufacturing industry. Improve the international competitiveness of products.
China's information industry chain has a good development and accumulation, and can use the effective competition in the 4G market to generate a strong driving force for bigger and stronger. According to the latest data of the International Standards Organization ETSI, Chinese manufacturers including Huawei, ZTE and Datang Telecom account for a total of 7.1% of LTE basic patents, the vast majority of which are LTE general technology patents, in LTE. Common patents and LTE-FDD specific basic patents account for more than 20% of all LTE basic patents. Chinese manufacturers can use 4G development to build a leading enterprise in the global information manufacturing industry.
From the experience of foreign development, open standards competition can achieve mutual promotion and avoid self-restraint. In recent years, the Korean electronics manufacturing industry has formed a strong industrial chain led by several world-renowned brands such as Samsung and LG. However, in the 2G era, South Korea only chose CDMA as the sole standard for the development of the national industry, and ultimately it was from Qualcomm. The pressure on high patent fees has been slow to develop. In the 3G era, South Korea opened its standards and adopted both CDMA2000 and WCDMA standards. A number of CDMA domestic equipment manufacturing companies have been cultivated, and a number of large enterprises with international competitiveness have grown up. Among them, Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics and other multinational companies with world-class strength, many of their products occupy an important position in the world electronic information products market.
In contrast, Japan has fallen from the electronics manufacturing powerhouse, because in the 2G era, Japanese mobile phones have adopted a closed standard strategy to make them isolated. Japan has formed a closed market for the national protection of its domestic PDC technology. In order to prevent the recurrence of the history of the 2G era, although Japan decided to adopt WCDMA and CDMA2000 in the development of 3G, the technology closure caused by the lack of competition was more serious than that of South Korea, and the international market for new products was gradually eroded by competitors. In the first quarter of 2014, the top ten brands of global smartphone shipments accounted for 82.7% of the market share. In Japan, only Sony entered the top ten with a small share of 4%, and Kyocera and Sharp were all annihilated.
The competition of open standards seems to impact local enterprises, but in fact, it has fully stimulated the vitality of the market, and the lack of a competitive market environment has led to group monopolies, hindering the rise of emerging enterprises in the industrial chain, and there is no room for innovation for SMEs. development of. When new industrial changes occur, large enterprises are slow to respond, and SMEs lack development opportunities, resulting in a decline in the overall strength of the industrial chain. China should avoid the mistakes of Japan in the development of 4G, and it is necessary to promptly issue LTE-FDD. This is not only to benefit the corporate appeal of China Telecom and China Unicom, but to the overall development of China's telecommunications industry.
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