Near the end of the year, the battery factory sales king has become more leisurely. On the day of the winter solstice on December 22, Xiao Wang sat in his office and played mobile phones all morning. There was no customer contact and no customer contact.
“At this time in the past two years, the mobile phones kept ringing. All were orders or requests for shipments,†Xiao Wang said. The end of the new energy automobile market will be “tilting†at the end of the year. The market is suddenly heating up, and power batteries are in short supply. At that time, the market for new energy vehicles was driven by subsidies, but the industrial chain was not complete and the battery capacity was in short supply. Enterprises that entered the power battery industry earlier have often been snapped up.
However, this year's power battery market has undergone dramatic changes. On December 20th, Liu Yanlong, secretary-general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, said in an article forwarded by WeChat's circle of friends: “The battery market has entered a depressing off-season. This lightness is not the same as in the past, and the power battery plant became The car company and the raw material company's sandwich layer are under pressure at both ends."
Most out-of-home battery companies are small battery factories known by the industry as low-end production capacity. Both sales performance and profits have fallen this year. The underlying reason is that the supply and demand situation in the entire market has reversed.
“In the past few years, the power battery was in short supply in some periods and was snapped up. The demand for power batteries is still increasing this year as a whole, but because of the high production capacity, the situation of small enterprises with no competitiveness is worse.†Liu Yanlong, 21st Century Economic report reporter said. Xiao Wang's battery factory used to produce mobile phone batteries in the past, only two years ago began to switch to power batteries. In Shenzhen, there are many such battery companies. "Being a power battery is not a matter of digging a few people. It can be done with a few devices. Now that battery technology has been upgraded very quickly, many small companies cannot keep up." Liu Yanlong said.
According to the data released at the 5th Lithium Davos Forum, from January to October 2017, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic new energy vehicle power batteries was 18.1 GWh, while the domestic power battery production capacity had exceeded 200 GWh, and the production capacity was in excess.
"Actually, it refers to the surplus of low-end production capacity. At present, China has more than 200 battery factories, but 80% of its shipments are completed by the top 10 companies in the industry, that is, sales are concentrated in high-quality battery factories. The other manufacturers will eat the remaining 20% ​​of the market, so this situation will arise." A battery company inside the power battery installed capacity of the insider said.
Two hundred companies emerged in two years
In 2011, when China’s new energy vehicles were just starting up, the domestic power lithium battery capacity was only 3,200 MWh, while the output was only 653 MWh.
However, in the second half of 2014, sales of new energy vehicles under the influence of subsidy and declining slopes, there was a “tail-upâ€, and the production capacity of power battery companies was tight. Many new energy car companies got orders but could not buy enough power. Battery installed.
In this situation, car companies are not critical of the quality of power batteries and other parameters. “At that time, subsidies only required several parameters such as cruising range of the battery. Subsidies for loading machines were basically obtained, but the battery output was still limited. Can not supply." Xiao Wang said.
Soon, the production capacity and project of the power battery began to go crazy. According to the GBII (Ligong Institute of Lithium Research) statistics, in 2015 China's power lithium battery capacity increased from 73MWh to 204MWh, an increase of 179%.
In Liu Yanlong's view, there are mainly three forms of power battery capacity investment: 1. The original power battery company expands production capacity; 2. The company that did not do power battery before, build the power battery production line, increase power battery business, such as making electronic product battery The company enters the power battery; 3. Other capitals come in and start doing power battery from nothing.
The boom of power battery expansion, the core driving force is the outbreak of sales of new energy vehicles, but the battery capacity expansion rate, far exceeds the growth rate of new energy vehicles. According to the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, at the end of 2016, China’s power battery capacity reached 101.3GWh, while shipments were only 28GWh. The capacity bubble is already very serious.
Behind the abnormal expansion of production, there are deeper reasons: The state's policy support for new energy vehicles, including huge financial subsidies, and the strong support of local governments in attracting investment, have driven investment impulses.
“In the past few years, as long as they say that they are new energy vehicles, or related industries on the chain, many local governments are all the way to attracting investment, not only in terms of land and taxation, but also support funds. Some companies also have Therefore, they took a lot of places.†A battery plant executive told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
Against this background, the number of power battery companies has soared. According to GBII data, the number of Chinese power lithium battery companies in 2015 is about 84. The data from other sources shows that in 2017, the number of power battery companies reached more than 200.
Giant expansion of the new stage
Even in the year 2017 when government subsidy for new energy vehicles drastically retreated, auto makers lowered prices for power batteries, and raw materials increased substantially, the pace of capacity expansion of battery companies has not stopped.
On December 14, BYD revealed during its interaction with investors that as of the end of this year, BYD's battery production capacity will reach 16GWh, of which 6GWh will have a triple battery and 10GWh of lithium iron phosphate battery. Next year, BYD will expand its 10GWh ternary material battery capacity in Qinghai, and it will reach 26GWh overall.
A comparable set of data is that last year, BYD's production capacity was only 10GWh, and the rival Ningde's time was only 8GWh. However, the long-term plan for BYD's battery is to expand its production capacity to 40 GWh by 2020. The Ningde era is expected to expand to 50GWh in this year.
However, at this time, the expansion of battery capacity has been different from the disorder of the previous two years, but it has entered a new stage of expansion of giants. Companies with larger capacity expansion plans are mainly large companies with the top five installed capacity of power batteries. They have obtained certain recognition in the market.
"Shenzhen has a lot of battery companies. BYD, Waterma and Bic are among them. Now their sales are still relatively good. We can't compare them with them." The battery factory where Xiao Wang is located has no reason at all. Expand production.
In fact, according to a number of battery companies interviewed by 21st Century Business Herald reporters, the battery companies with the highest installed capacity are not pessimistic about market expectations. According to statistics released by the GBII “New Energy Auto Industry Chain Databaseâ€, the total installed capacity of new energy vehicles in October 2017 was approximately 2.93 GWh, an increase of 49% year-on-year and a decrease of 6% from the previous quarter. Among them, the total installed capacity of the top ten power battery companies totaled 2.27 GWh, accounting for 77% of the total. The top five companies are: Ningde Times, BYD, Waterma, BAK Battery, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech.
The seawater and flame of the power battery industry coexist. On the one hand, large companies continue to expand on a large scale, and on the other, small businesses enter the reshuffle period. In the next three years, 90% of small businesses will be eliminated, which has become the consensus of the power battery industry.
“The power battery technology has been upgraded very quickly. Many small businesses have failed to keep up with the investment in capital and technology. The small and scattered situation is very common,†said Liu Yanlong. At this time, state subsidies have certain requirements for the cruising range, energy density, and even the quality of batteries. It is difficult for small battery manufacturers to adapt to market demand.
In the battery factory visited by 21st Century Business Herald reporters, some companies still use workers to hold a ruler and measure the thickness of the pole piece. "The thickness is not the same, it determines the consistency of the battery pack is good or not, this is a very critical process. Now big companies are using intelligent production testing, but some small businesses still use artificial." An expert in the battery industry said .
"Overall, the pattern of small and scattered power batteries has not been fundamentally resolved. The high-end production capacity is insufficient, and the contradiction of low-end overcapacity has become more intense this year," said the battery company insider.
“The low-end production capacity is already at a disadvantage in terms of product price, safety, and service life. The power battery can not meet the life span of five to eight years. For the low-end production capacity, it is a huge question.†said Liu Yanlong. .
Which kind of battery is surplus?
The power battery is still dominated by lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. According to the data of the total installed capacity of the power battery of GBII in October 2017, a total of 2.68 GWh of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials were installed in the total installed capacity of 2.93 GWh. , accounting for 91.6%.
However, the proportion of installed capacity of ternary materials batteries has risen relatively quickly, and many large companies also use ternary materials batteries as their future capacity investment plans.
“The increase in the share of installed capacity of ternary materials and the new capacity planning are mostly guided by policies. State subsidies require specific energy, and ternary materials are indeed higher than energy, so the current situation has emerged.†Liu Yanlong Say.
As for the advantages and disadvantages of the two technical routes of lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium, the head of research and development of a power battery company believes that it cannot be simply characterized by the specific energy of the monomer, because the battery is a parameter that requires large-scale industrial applications. Complex body.
The above-mentioned sources believe that although the ternary energy density may be higher than that of lithium iron phosphate, its energy density during use is not as high as that of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Taking lithium iron phosphate single cell as an example, the energy density is 126Wh/KG, the group utilization rate is 70%, and the utilization rate is 80%. The final energy density used is 70Wh/KG. For the long life of the triple battery, if the fast charge and quick release are easy to cause loss of control, it is necessary to use a cooling system, and the available energy is only 47%. At the same time, in order to ensure security, the SOC can only use 70%, which greatly reduces its use efficiency.
“In the course of use, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate is higher than that of ternary materials. Currently, there are indeed excess supply of lithium iron phosphate batteries on the market, and ternary materials are relatively scarce, but it is not a problem of battery routes, but policy guidance. Due to the above mentioned. In the process of industrialization, the industry consensus is that lithium iron phosphate is superior to ternary materials. “Cobalt and nickel needed for ternary materials basically need to be imported, increasing production costs, and not as good as lithium iron phosphate, which was previously imprisoned by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology into a new energy passenger vehicle because of safety issues. Therefore, in terms of reliability, Consistency, stability and cost, lithium iron phosphate is more controllable than three yuan." The above sources said.
“Some people say that the surplus of power batteries is the structural excess of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. I don’t agree. In the future, short-distance, shared, and buses will still choose lithium iron phosphate batteries.†Liu Yanlong Indicated.
The state plans to completely abolish subsidies for new energy vehicles by 2020, when companies may reorient battery routes. “When car companies choose to use a power battery, if the cost, safety, service life, and other aspects are taken into consideration, it is not certain which route wins at the time.â€
In addition, there are also concerns that the current production capacity of power batteries as a whole will be excessive, which may lead to an excess of upstream raw materials.
Power battery raw materials include cathode materials, anode materials, separators, electrolytes, conductive agents, adhesives, tabs, aluminum-plastic composite film. The four most important materials are cathode materials, anode materials, separators, and electrolytes.
Liu Yanlong believes that positive materials, negative materials, and separators may have surplus conditions in the future, but they are not currently outstanding. The cobalt and nickel in the upstream materials are relatively scarce.
According to a person in charge of research and development at a battery company in Shenzhen, positive electrode material production capacity is relatively abundant; the most important material for the electrolyte is lithium hexafluorophosphate, which accounts for half of the cost of the electrolyte. With the upstream material companies newly added and put into production, the production capacity has increased significantly, which has eased the tightening of supply in 2016; the important material for the negative electrode is graphite. Although the amount of natural graphite is relatively abundant, it is subject to environmental protection regulations, and there is a risk of price increases in the short term. There will be no supply shortage; diaphragms have been under tight supply since wet diaphragms are relatively thin and difficult, and in the next two or three years, diaphragms will increase further along with capacity and performance.
“On the whole, raw material supply and demand are basically balanced, and it is not as severe as the battery capacity. The cobalt and nickel needed for the ternary material battery are in short supply and demand, and the price rises quickly.†The above sources said.
Who will take over the production capacity?
The power battery industry has already entered the phase of elimination and reshuffling. The factors that push small companies out of the market include, in addition to overcapacity, price increases for cobalt and other raw materials. "Now cobalt prices are still rising, and prices have doubled this year," said Liu Yanlong.
The data on December 20 showed that the latest cobalt price has reached 517,000 yuan to 53 thousand yuan per ton, which has increased by 7,000 yuan to 220,000 yuan per ton a week ago.
The main upstream materials used for the cathode include: lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese. “The release of cobalt ore may not be able to keep up with the rapid growth in demand, and cobalt prices are still expected to remain relatively high.†said the person in charge of research and development of the battery company.
On the demand side, the overall price pressure of power battery packs is also a trend. The subsidy for new energy vehicles has been declining year by year. This year and next year, it is the phase with the largest extent of slope reduction. New energy car companies are facing huge cost pressures, and the cost of battery packs accounts for roughly 40%-50% of the cost of a car, which is the focus of cost reduction.
The battery industry is facing pressures both upstream and downstream, and small businesses are still caught in the dilemma of not being able to scale. "In addition to battery quality competition, there is the cost of competition. The scale of application is essential for power batteries, is an important measure for power battery companies to expand market share and reduce costs." The battery company insiders said.
According to the statistics of the market demand of a large-scale battery factory, in 2017, the output of new energy vehicles in China will reach 700,000 vehicles, and the corresponding installed capacity of lithium-ion batteries will reach 30GWh. The capacity utilization rate is about 15%.
In the longer term, according to the national data plan for the promotion of new energy vehicles in 2020, the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 2 million. "If 1GWH corresponds to 20,000 passenger cars or 0.85 million passenger cars, it is expected that the total battery capacity of passenger cars and passenger cars by 2020 will be 226.84 GWh," said the person in charge of research and development of the battery company.
At present, the domestic power battery capacity has exceeded 200GWh. According to the company's expansion plan, by 2020, if the capacity of the top ten battery companies is fully released, it will already be able to meet market demand. Small businesses face the choice between life and death, but due to the low technological content and backward technology, the path for the elimination of low-end production capacity is not clear. “At present, the production capacity of large companies is mainly self-built. It will be difficult to say whether they will buy small businesses. It depends mainly on the prices of enterprises. This year, there are still some markets for small businesses that may be asking for higher prices. The future is very difficult, and the asking price may be very low. "Liu Yanlong said.
In another way, small businesses may introduce new investors. However, with this integration, it is difficult to rescue low-end production capacity.
However, the future prospects of power batteries are still very optimistic, market share is concentrated in large companies, will promote the industry's R & D strength, market share, scale of application and management, have entered a new stage.
“Even in the global market, China’s power batteries have now exhibited three major advantages: low manufacturing costs, the world’s largest power battery consumer market, and a relatively complete industrial chain of lithium-ion batteries. Power battery companies will not lose. Japanese and Korean companies.†said the battery company R & D responsible person.
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