[How to catch up with the "four big families" of robots and avoid being stuck in the neck by others? From the production activities of handling, palletizing and welding, to life activities such as reading newspapers and accompaniments, to military activities such as demining and fighting, the "Robot Age" is approaching.
The robot is an important automation equipment for modern manufacturing that combines mechanical, electronic, control, computer, sensors, artificial intelligence and other multi-disciplinary advanced technologies. According to the application area, it is divided into industrial robots, service robots and special robots.
According to the data from the International Robot Federation (IFR), the global robot market in 2017 has reached US$23.2 billion, of which the industrial robot market is the largest with 14.7 billion U.S. dollars, the special robot is 5.6 billion U.S. dollars, and the service robot market is 29 U.S. dollars. One hundred million U.S. dollars.
Since 2009, annual sales of global industrial robots have increased year by year. Due to the continuous rise in domestic labor costs, the demand for “robot replacement†has been driven by the rapid development of the Chinese industrial robot market in 2013. In the same year, China surpassed Japan and became the country with the largest number of robots in the year, and it has remained the world's largest application market so far.
Despite the rapid development of robots on the land in China, the dividends generated by the huge market of industrial robots in China have been represented by the four major families of robots (Switzerland abb, Japanese Fanuc, Yaskawa, and Kuka, Germany). The brand devours more than half of China’s market share by these four foreign companies.
At the 5th China Robot Summit, China’s Machinery Industry Federation’s former Executive Secretary Zhu Sendi stated that starting from the “7th Five-Year Plan†and “Eighth Five-Year Plan†issues, China has created some development environments for the robot industry, but the market has not grasped The failure of their own hands and key technologies to achieve more breakthroughs, the lack of team formation, and the inharmonious application of robots were not harmonious enough. This ultimately led to the fact that China’s robotics industry has not been formed, and that it has only made a few breakthroughs.
In 2015, it was also considered by the industry as "the first year of Chinese robotics." In May 2015, the “Made in China 2025†plan was launched. It clearly included industrial robots as one of the ten key areas for vigorously promoting breakthrough development, and promoted the standardization of robots, development of modularization, and expansion of market applications.
“In 2015, the development of blowout in this industry,†Zhu said, “The market share of Chinese domestic robots in the domestic market has increased from 26% in 2013 to 33% in 2016. One, in 2016, the four family share exceeded 60%.
"Compared to the 'Four Big Family', we spent a few short years on the development path of people for decades. We have not yet been able to say that we have been completely successful, but we have also achieved great success." CPPCC National Committee for Physical Education Deputy Director Cao Jianlin said, "But in most areas, especially in high-tech fields, China is still a follower."
"The Chinese robotics industry can only solve the problems of mastering the core technologies and expanding the application fields of the mainframe in various industries. It can only be able to follow and run and eventually lead the industry," said Zhu Sendi. "Conservative estimate, realize this The target time should be between 2035-2045."
In his view, 2015-2025 will be the period of China's robot industry, but before 2035, the Chinese robot industry is still in a catch-up period.
"Cartache" problem
"In the field of industrial robot robots, the core components are heavily dependent on imports and have stuck the 'neck' of the development of domestic robots," said Qu Xianming, member of the National Manufacturing Power Construction Strategic Advisory Committee and director of the Manufacturing Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Engineering.
Industrial robots consist of basic parts such as the mechanical body, control system, drive and transmission systems, and sensor components. The upstream components of the industry are the three core components: reducer, servo system and controller. The midstream company is the robot body manufacturer, and the downstream is the system. Integrators.
As the three core components of industrial robots account for more than 70% of the cost of robots, the long-term development of core components lags behind, which has become a barrier to the development of China's industrial robot industry.
As an example of a precision speed reducer used to precisely control robot motion and transmit more torque, currently more than 70% of the world's precision speed reducer market is owned by two companies in Japan, Hamenerike and Nabtesco, and China is also mainly dependent on import. However, data from the Intellectual Property Industry Think Tank Partner Industry Research Institute shows that from 2016 onwards, China’s imports of precision reducers have started to decline as the output of domestic precision reducers has risen.
Suzhou Green Harmonic Drive Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Green Harmonic) is a company engaged in research, development, design, and production of precision harmonic transmission devices (for robot joints of up to 20 kg). Qu Xianming introduced that in 2017, Green Harmonics sold 98,000 units of speed reducers, of which export accounted for 15%, and the domestic market share reached 60%. The integration of harmonic reducers and servo motors has been achieved. The mainstream market.
"Our products can be in efficiency with the international giant PK," said Chu Jianhua Chu Jianhua, director of Harbin's Harmonic Technology. "In addition, domestic companies have shorter lead times than imported products, and they can also serve the market." It also promoted our sales."
According to Chu Jianhua, green harmonics can achieve current results, thanks to the company's annual R&D investment of more than 20 million yuan. With the market's recognition, Green's harmonics will also establish intelligent manufacturing lines. The former rough machining mode will be used to produce robot core parts and components, and 600,000 new production capacity will be added.
At the same time, Nantong Zhenkang Machinery Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Nantong Zhenkang) also sold 28,000 units in 2017 in the domestic RV reducer (used for more than 20 kilograms of robot joints); Qinchuan Machine Tool Group also last year Nearly 10,000 Taiwan sales. The digitized workshops of both companies are also under construction and will add 60,000 units of production capacity.
The China-Thailand Securities Research Institute analyzed in its report on the localization process of industrial robots that domestic companies have achieved independent research and development and marketing in some core components such as servo motors and controllers. At present, the market of robot speed reducers is highly monopolized, and domestic reducers cannot achieve full import substitution during the period of popularity.
Qu Xianming believes that there are three difficulties in the overall import substitution of domestic reducers. The first is that the “professional, refined, and distinctive†group of companies engaged in R&D and production of core components in China has not been able to grow up; the second is that users are more tolerant of foreign parts and demanding of domestically produced products; in addition, the industry is heavy The perspective of parts has not yet been completely reversed.
“At the same time, foreign competitors continue to suppress Chinese companies,†added Qu Xianming. “Using RV reducers as an example, Japanese companies are selling at a high price when China is not yet localized; once Chinese breakthroughs, Japanese companies immediately lower prices. The price forces Chinese companies to lose money and they cannot be innovative and industrialized."
"The development of China's robotic industry is not short of market and capital. The key is the lack of core technology," said Qu Xianming. “In the development of key components and parts, we should train 2-3 professional companies to achieve mass production and ensure quality and quality. Cost, so also avoid redundant construction and vicious competition."
The controller used to issue and deliver action instructions is considered to be the "brain" of the robot, which is the smallest component at home and abroad. China Securities Research reported that the controller includes hardware and software in two parts. The hardware is the current domestic brands of industrial control boards. The software components are mainly control algorithms, secondary development, etc. There are still gaps in the stability, response speed, and ease of use of domestic brands.
Compared with controllers, China is completely at a disadvantage in terms of servo systems. The market is almost monopolized by the Japanese system represented by Yaskawa and the German system represented by Siemens. The national production rate only accounts for 10%, and domestic manufacturers include Eston, Guangzhou CNC and so on.
Servo system is the main power source of industrial robots. It consists of servo motor, servo driver and encoder. The cost of the optical servo system accounts for 23% of the cost of the industrial robot body.
The research report of the partner industry research institute pointed out that the gap between home-made servos and foreign brands is mainly reflected in the lack of high-power products, the lack of compact products, and the lack of high-precision encoders.
In January 2018, China issued the "China Manufacturing 2025" Green Paper on Technological Innovation Key Technology - Technology Roadmap (2017). It is proposed that by 2020, domestic robots and key components with independent intellectual property rights will meet the domestic market. 50% supply capacity.
Qu Xianming told the journalist of the interface that in 2016, China listed 17 “flexible composite robots and key components industrialization†as the 17 major landmark projects of the year and gave them key support. By the end of 2017, a number of projects have been arranged around the R&D and industrialization of RV reducers, harmonic reducers, and servo motors. These projects will be completed by the end of 2019, and the key parts and components of robots will be basically autonomous.
Incremental market opportunities
The products of domestic robots are mainly in the middle and lower reaches. For the robotic body manufacturers located in the midstream of the industry, their products can only be used downstream to gain sales and profits.
Chinese industrial robots are widely used in the automotive, electronics, and metal processing industries. Currently, the larger-scale applications are concentrated in the automotive and electronics industries. In 2016, the two together accounted for 72% of the share. Among them, the automotive industry has a 43% share.
In the automotive sector, the "four big families" of robots have occupied most of the markets. Li Zexiang, director of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Automation Technology Center, said: "I have always called for not going to the auto industry to go to the 'Four Big Families' because there are no opportunities and we should shift to industries with Chinese characteristics. The giants have not stepped into the industry to break through."
In fact, the "four big families" have their own emphasis. FANUC mainly relies on controllers to enter the market, and robots and other businesses are expanding around their core CNC control systems. Yaskawa has entered the market with its servo system, and this part of revenue has surpassed the robot body business for years.
Contrast with the two Japanese companies is ABB and KUKA, both involved in the upstream core components, but focus on the downstream system integration application business.
As a Chinese startup that develops a control system that is suitable for small six-axis systems and produces both a robot body and a smart manufacturing solution, Panshi (Beijing) Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Swordstone Robots) chose to avoid “Four Big Familiesâ€. "Leading markets, alignment and sewing, and other emerging incremental markets.
"Usually a robotic product can cover a limited number of industry scenes, but China is a big manufacturing country and has a large number of unique industry application scenarios. This has given Lao Shi potential opportunities," said Yan Hua, CEO of Shi Jie.
The domestic lingerie brand, which is troubled by the difficulty of recruiting employees, has thought of a solution for sewing underwear with a robot and a sewing machine. Yan Hua introduced that Aimin had found ABB at the very beginning, but he did not receive a reply within six months of reporting to Sweden's headquarters. He began contact with Yushi Shi and the two parties started cooperation in August 2017. The current order has been completed.
“Emerging market demand is a breakthrough point for the development of domestic robots,†said Yan Hua. “Future industrial robot onion hardware will be standardized and the software will become personalized, so that the hardware, software and controller can be changed according to different application scenarios. Adaptation, this domestic robot, in the underlying algorithm, software iterations of specific application scenarios have put forward higher requirements."
Liu Jinchang, project director of the High Technology Center of the Ministry of Science and Technology believes that as the capacity and demand of the robot market in China and the world continue to increase, on the one hand, Chinese companies are striving to make robots useable, durable, and easy to use; on the other hand, the production capacity of domestic robots And the quality is also improving and it can occupy a share in the expansion of emerging markets.
Zhu Chendi believes that domestic robots should also enter the automotive sector. "Home-made robots are basically used in scenarios where labor intensity is high and the environment is harsh. We should ease into the automotive sector with some heavy physical labor," he said.
Giuseppe Giuseppe gives a path to the automotive industry. In his view, if you can not directly enter the domestic automotive industry, you can export back to domestic sales, go abroad to take orders, enter the domestic market. However, the premise of this step is to improve the reliability of the robot and ensure the normal operation of the production line.
Cultivate leaders and small giants
"Chinese robots need leading enterprises." When asked about the problems still to be solved in the Chinese robotics industry, Chu Jianhua blurted out.
In his opinion, the robotics industry is not only a technology-intensive industry, but requires constant technological innovation. At the same time, the robotics industry also has economies of scale. The competitiveness of the leading companies determines the competitiveness of the robot industry to a certain extent.
“In the procurement of parts and components, the bargaining power of leading companies can mainly reduce the cost of robots,†Liu Jinchang said. “With leading companies, China can compete positively with international giants.â€
The cultivation of robotic leading companies has also been valued by the Chinese government. In May 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the "Robotic Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning" and "Planning" requirements, cultivating more than three leading companies and creating more than five Robot supporting industrial clusters.
Luo Junjie, Deputy Director of the Department of Equipment of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also stated that in the future, China will focus on nurturing a world-class robotic industry cluster, expanding a group of core and competitive key enterprises and leading companies, and nurturing a number of individual champion companies focusing on subdivided fields.
The Xinsong Robotics Automation Co., Ltd. (300023.SZ, hereinafter referred to as Xinsong) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences is a full-industry-chain robot company integrating its own core technologies, core components, core products, and industrial system solutions. It is also China. The top 10 leading companies in the robotics industry.
Chen Li, director of the Hangzhou Xinsong Robot Research Institute, told the interface news that industrial robots are the most important equipment for constructing intelligent manufacturing systems. They do not have industrial robots and cannot construct intelligent manufacturing systems. Leading companies in the industry are the core forces of robotics, artificial intelligence and smart manufacturing.
According to Chen Li, Xinsong is not only concerned with the development and manufacturing of robots, but also with the development of off-line simulation software for robots. “This is something that foreign giants like Siemens are doing at this stage and are also looking forward to breakthroughs in the field. It is not because domestic robot companies have simulation software."
Qu Xianming also pointed out that China should learn from the lag in the development of chips and be subject to the lessons of people, and control the core parts and components of robots in their own hands. His proposal is to train a large number of "professional, refined, and characteristic" giant giants, provide support for the robot machine factory, and finally to the "world stealth champion".
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