[New energy vehicles have a large number of upstream enterprises, why only the Ningde era became a "unicorn"? Ningde era is a lithium battery company. Since its establishment more than six years ago, it has grown to become the world's first power battery industry with revenue of 20 billion. Today it is listed on the GEM. However, after the decline in subsidies for the electric vehicle industry in 2017, its profits also fell. The domestic new energy auto industry is also a decline in the performance of a large number of companies, and the same battery company's Watmar even broke the debt crisis.
The story of the Ningde era should start from ATL. In 1999, Zeng Yiqun, Chen Yuhua and others saw the opportunity of the consumer electronics battery industry, and together they founded ATL to manufacture consumer lithium batteries. Since 2006, the company has also gradually developed power batteries. When the BMW electric vehicle project entered the Chinese market in 2011, ATL became the sole supplier of BMW. In order to get the BMW project and get rid of the restrictions of Japanese capital holding, the Ningde era was established. Therefore, the management of Ningde era is the original team of ATL, which also inherits ATL's power battery technology and talents.
In 2015, Ningde Times became a supplier of Yutong buses. Subsequently, Xiamen Jinlong, Beiqi New Energy, Geely Automobile, Dongfeng Motor, etc. have also become customers in the Ningde era. In the Ningde era, a small company with revenue of 867 million yuan and net profit of 54 million yuan in 2014 quickly developed into a power battery giant with revenue of 20 billion yuan in 2017 and net profit of nearly 4 billion yuan, a 23-fold increase. 2300% if you want a number that looks more scary. This rapid prosperity is also brought about by policy subsidies.
The industrial chain of new energy vehicles is mainly composed of upstream raw materials such as lithium and cobalt; middle-end battery manufacturing; downstream vehicle manufacturing and charging equipment. In the past three or four years, the loose and Pratt & Whitney vehicle subsidy policy directly promoted the sales of domestic new energy vehicles from 75,000 in 2014 to 597,000 in 2016 and 777,000 in 2017. At the same time, the price of lithium and cobalt has risen sharply; the battery manufacturing sector has also cultivated such a giant in the Ningde era. But the prosperity created by subsidies will not last long. From the second half of 2016, subsidies began to shrink.
For example, in 2015-2016, a pure electric bus of more than 7 meters, the national and local double subsidies can reach 800,000, and the 2017 subsidy policy will be reduced to a maximum subsidy of 200,000. This directly led to a decrease of 13.88% in passenger car sales of 7 meters and above in 2017 compared with 2016, while the net profit of Yutong Bus, the largest customer in Ningde era, decreased by 22% in 2017; its second largest customer, Beiqi New Energy 1- Net profit in October fell sharply to only 39 million yuan year-on-year; the fourth largest customer Jinlong Automobile's revenue fell nearly 20%.
In 2017, the decline in downstream vehicle sales, as well as the upstream raw material battery-grade lithium carbonate price rose by 47.54%, and the cobalt price rose by more than 100%, which together caused the performance of the Ningde era in the middle reaches to decline. In Ningde era, the net non-profit profit in 2017 was only 2.47 billion yuan, down 16.47% year-on-year.
In addition to the pressure from upstream prices and downstream demand, the power battery industry is still undergoing a competitive phase of price wars after experiencing expansion. From 2015 to 2017, the average sales price of power battery systems in Ningde era was 2.28 yuan/Wh, 2.06 yuan/Wh and 1.41 yuan/Wh, respectively. The price dropped very fast, and the gross profit margin is currently only about 36%. And even if the price is cut, the speed at which the product is sold is slowed down. In 2016, the inventory turnover days were 51 days, and in 2017 it was significantly extended to 68 days.
And Watmar, who is also a power battery giant, is now experiencing a debt crisis. New energy vehicles are once again at the forefront.
In fact, the entire new energy automobile industry is similar to the previous wind power, photovoltaic, and LED panels. The logic of these industries is: foreign development - domestic subsidy catching - overcapacity - price war - giants appear - subsidies are reduced - the remaining is king .
Now the background and stage of the entire new energy automobile industry is precisely the period when the policy support is gradually weakened and the green and yellow are not connected.
At the stage when the wind power industry supported the most, the giants such as Huarui Wind Power also emerged. Sinovel Wind Power also rose in just a few years. In 2010, its revenue was 20 billion yuan and its net profit was nearly 3 billion yuan. However, with the decline in policy support, the performance in the first year of listing in 2011 has changed dramatically.
The situation is similar now, but as long as the technical route of the ternary battery is not rapidly subverted, there will still be a big company left in this market.
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