The market prospects, development trends and energy-saving effects of new energy vehicles have formed a global consensus. In recent years, China’s support in the new energy automotive industry has continued to increase in terms of capacity planning, macro policy promotion, and multi-level subsidy forms. Formed and improved the industrial repulsion and guidance mechanism. Although public opinion and investment enthusiasm in the field of new energy vehicles have always maintained a high momentum in the past few years, they are plagued by problems such as core technological breakthroughs, infrastructure layout, use costs, and operating cycles. Constraints, the overall production and sales of new energy vehicles is still significantly lower than the policy expectations and market expectations.
Recently, the sales data of passenger vehicles released by the Federation of Travel Unions shows that from January to October, the sales volume of narrow passenger vehicles in China was 18.855 million vehicles, while sales of new energy vehicles were only 352,000 units in the same period, accounting for only 1.8 million of the total passenger vehicle sales in the country. %, which is far behind the expectation of production and sales of 700,000 units at the beginning of the year. It can be seen that the situation of strong policy, investment and market coexistence has not been fundamentally reversed, and the reasonableness of the industrial resource mix reflected by the sales market data and consumption The reality of the acceptability of new energy vehicles is even more profound.
We know that the development of industrialization must follow the market-based approach and be guided by market demand. The crux of the issue has always been that the sales of new energy vehicles are difficult to increase, and they have long been trapped in three factors: infrastructure, core technology, and effective market support. The three-pair relationship "chicken-egg dispute": There are car companies and distribution channels that consider core technologies as breakthroughs and lack of necessary infrastructure to enable consumers to maintain a wait-and-see attitude toward new energy vehicles, while charging facility operating platform providers believe that The overall holding capacity is not high and it is difficult to support the construction of large-scale charging facilities. In terms of technology research and development, the demand of the overall market is not high. From the perspective of economic interests, there has been a substantial increase in capital to overcome the lack of subjective enthusiasm for core technology research.
In fact, from the sales structure of existing new energy vehicles, the low-speed, A00-class new energy vehicles occupy a relatively large market share. The main reason is that the requirements for charging facilities for low-speed, sub-A new energy vehicles are not too high. Strict, and the use of relatively cost-effective, can better meet the short-distance travel needs of the general wage earners in the second-third and fourth-tier cities and the new urbanization area, within its economic reach, but also really played a role in energy conservation and environmental protection. In reality, the emergence of high-end new energy vehicles that cannot push forward production and sales, and the strong pressure of low-speed electric vehicles are still in demand, is an important factor that is caused by the lack of industrial resources resulting from the guidance mechanism that follows the needs of market players. Mismatching, from the design of market consumption levels, has created a current reality dilemma.
From this we can foresee that if we implement a multi-level development strategy, we will gradually standardize and guide the production, circulation, and supervision of low-end new energy vehicles in response to different user needs, spending power, and purpose of use. After the production capacity of new energy vehicles for different needs is increased, companies will naturally adjust their product and production capacity structure according to market demand. At the same time, they will also cater for the desire of users for product upgrades and internal competition among industries, through market games and consumption upgrades. The demands of the industry have continuously increased technology, presented low-medium-level and high-level industrial promotion strategies, and free market guidance has driven car companies to spontaneously promote technological innovation and improve infrastructure. It is believed that the development of the entire new energy automobile industry will be faster, because once As the entire consumer market operates and capital flows, the industry will continue to generate new and higher market demands. It will cultivate a group of vehicle companies with real technical strength and market mechanism to adapt to the market, and at the same time spur Car companies follow market mechanisms to speed up R&D and avoid production capacity Left and resource overdraft overinvestment formed, driven by battery, electric motor and so the whole industry chain to a higher development index.
From the perspective of industrial investment, various types of capital are generally optimistic about the market prospects of new energy vehicles due to the inflexible mechanism for fuel vehicle policies, and they are rushing into the new energy vehicle market. In the past two years, there have been more than 200 new energy vehicle vehicles in China. The production project landed, involving an investment of RMB 1.2 trillion, and the open capacity plan has reached 21.24 million vehicles. Moreover, most of the targets are concentrated on high-end new energy vehicles. Local governments also provide large amounts of land and financial resources to support them. If they cannot follow market mechanisms to meet market demands, it is likely that in recent years, a large number of companies will find it difficult to sustain The mature stage of the production and sales market leads to potential overcapacity. At that time, some enterprises that are not yet competitive in the industry and are in the process of accumulation and development will face a tragic market clean-up or even rule out regional waste of resources and financial risks.
In the foreseeable future, there will be a series of measures in the macroeconomic policy that will force the fuel vehicles to be launched in an orderly manner and will be more conducive to the development of new energy vehicles. This is a positive expectation for new energy vehicles, but with the The trend of the overall economic situation is not yet clear, subsidies are reduced, and consumers are more likely to consider the choices in auto consumption. At the same time, the proportion of joint ventures in the field of new energy vehicles will be further restricted, and foreign technology and capital will flow into the future. Competition in the new energy market will be even more cruel and fierce. In this regard, the government and auto companies should attach importance to following market requirements, improve the access, guidance, and supervision mechanisms for multi-level new energy vehicles, rationally allocate production resources, and effectively avoid resource misallocation and disorderly competition within the industry. Large-scale investment in new energy vehicles in the early stage prevented the emergence of a large-scale collapse of the industry and the deterioration of industrial ecology and waste of industrial resources.
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