If peace of mind is always calm, the air-conditioning market is no longer the air-conditioning market. With the advent of summer, it means that the traditional peak season of the air-conditioning industry is quiet. However, this year's air-conditioning industry is uncharacteristically. Recently, the upstream financial-Chongqing Business Daily reporter visited the market and learned that the air-conditioner Ge Ge Li announced that "5.20 the city to grab the Gree" opened the promotion drama, 5.19 ~ 5.20 these two days, Gree launched a 7.7 discount 200,000 sets of special air conditioning. Subsequently, Midea launched 500,000 sets of air conditioners from 5.18 to 5.20 on the grounds of the 50th anniversary of Midea Group, with prices as low as 30%. Aux, Haier and other air-conditioning companies have also followed suit.
[Market phenomenon]
Air conditioning fell below the thousand yuan price war "re-emergence of the rivers and lakes"
On May 18th, the upstream financial-Chongqing Business Daily reporter visited the market and saw that the promotional posters in the Nanping Suning store can be seen everywhere: “Pre-stored 20 times, 999 yuan special air conditioner crazy grab, central air conditioner 0 yuan precision installation, bracket FREE". It is reported that this air conditioning, Suning 999 yuan ultra-low-cost explosion-proof air conditioning will invest 10,000 units.
Almost at the same time, in the Gome Chongqing store, the promotion board of “5.20 citywide grabs, as low as 7.7 fold, only 2 days†can be seen everywhere. The US air-conditioning zone also has a slogan of “500,000 sets of air conditioners with prices as low as 30% offâ€.
In addition to the direct price drop, air-conditioner cabinets can also be sent to hang up. Such as the purchase of Gree I respect, I respect II series cabinet machine, send 1.2P frequency conversion U platinum hang machine (silk red); buy Hisense male god X cabinet machine, add 399 yuan to send 1.2P level energy efficiency goddess hang up.
As the three major "overlords" of the air-conditioning industry, Gree, Midea, and Haier have thrown out large-scale promotions. Hisense, Oaks, TCL and other brands have also followed suit. Individual brands have launched a slogan of "more than 30% off."
In addition to the price smothering, Suning launched a trade-in, 30-day return 365 days replacement, delivery synchronization, late to pay, buy expensive and lose. Gome provides an air-conditioned “eight-free†installation service that is free of remote installation fees, free brackets, and free of charge for the machine within 20 kilometers.
Behind the promotion list "Flying in the sky", an unconventional air conditioning "price war" is in full swing.
[reason of price reduction]
"off-season pressure" logic air conditioning inventory broke 40 million sets
Upstream Finance-Chongqing Business Daily reporter noted that from the upstream of the industrial chain, copper, plastics and other raw materials accounted for 90% of the cost structure of home appliance enterprises, prices are rising, among which, the copper index rose as much as 30.9% Labor costs, logistics costs, and storage costs are also growing rapidly. This is aggravating the home appliance industry, where profits are already very thin.
High cost, and the value of air-conditioning sales season, why the major businesses are counter-promotional promotion? Industry insiders said that the huge inventory has been formed is undoubtedly the Damocles sword hanging in the air-conditioning industry.
"In the final analysis, it is still a huge inventory." Aowei cloud network related analysis, the latest data released by Aowei Cloud Network shows that domestic air-conditioning inventory has reached 37 million units, and at the end of March, it exceeded 40 million units.
According to industry statistics, this is the total sales volume in China for nearly one year, which means that the industry will no longer produce from now on, and 40 million sets will be difficult to digest at the end of this year's sales season.
At the same time, Aowei Cloud (AVC) data also showed that in January-February 2018, air-conditioner retail sales totaled 12.6 billion yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year, and retail sales of 3.2 million sets fell 11.7% year-on-year. Despite the pullback in March, the overall market volume rose, but the retail sales of Q1 in 2017 fell by 17%. And the average price of the industry has dropped significantly compared with last month. This means that the sales volume that is warming up is just a promotion. Through policy subsidies such as “monthly return, quarter return, and annual returnâ€, the “food policy stocking†of air-conditioning dealers is promoted at various levels.
A dealer who did not want to be named said that the air-conditioning industry has always been a "low-season pressure" marketing model. Air-conditioning manufacturers intend to lock the market and merchants in the off-season in advance through the method of pressing goods, so that the peak season can be achieved in the peak season. Mass sales volume. But once the peak season is expected to arrive, the terminal will not sell, and the funds have become inventories.
Zhongyikang analyst Liu Long said that looking back to the first three quarters of 2017, the summer weather was very hot, retail sales, domestic sales surged, and many brands actively expanded production capacity, but in the fourth quarter there has been an inflection point, the air conditioning market is hot Turn cold.
The industry believes that under the influence of overdraft future demand, real estate purchase restriction policy, raw material price and other factors, the industry will enter the shift period in 2018, the oligopoly trend will become more obvious, and the "price war" will be more frequent.
[Trends Impact]
Air conditioning industry faces reshuffle this year will enter the adjustment period
The development of the home appliance industry seems to have a reincarnation. The most "crazy" period of reviewing the price war in the air-conditioning industry was around 2003. At that time, the air conditioner of 999 yuan was full of streets. In 2000, there were about 400 air-conditioning brands in China, which was a prosperous one. However, the brand's melee, princes and hegemony, also caused a serious excess of air-conditioning capacity at that time. In order to seize market share and digest inventories, the air-conditioning brand headed by Gree and Midea officially opened the price war in the “blood wash industry†in 2000.
In 2003, the number of air-conditioners dropped to about 140. In 2004, the number of active brands in the market was only about 50. In 2009, this number was reduced to 29, and by 2012, there were only over 10 brands that could hear the sound. In 10 years, the elimination rate of air-conditioning brands has reached more than 90%.
However, due to the optimistic air-conditioning market in recent years, many investors have "returned." Such as Skyworth, Konka and other color TV brands have also announced cross-border, layout of air-conditioning products to fill the short board in the overall home appliances. There is a rough estimate in the industry that the brand of the air-conditioning industry returned to 20 years ago in 2018, and the brand has rebounded to 200.
Insiders, once the market is bearish, giants such as Gree and Midea are likely to start a more "bloody" price war again.
"The air-conditioning industry is likely to become the second color TV industry. The price war will cost nearly a thousand dollars, which will make the air-conditioning profits lower and lower. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers with poor strength may be eliminated." Liu Buchen, an observer in the home appliance industry, said.
Although, many household air conditioners have also ushered in a new season for 8 years, statistics, the existing 126 million household split air conditioners in the country need to be renewed, but the analysts still believe that the air conditioner industry this year is not optimistic.
Zhongyikang expects that although the air-conditioning replacement rate will reach 58.7% in 2018, the retail sales of the air-conditioning market will fall by 5.0% year-on-year, and the retail sales will reach 189 billion yuan. For the reason of the decline, Peng Yi, deputy general manager of Zhongyikang Times, said: "First of all, the air-conditioning market will no longer enjoy the real estate market dividend in 2018. From the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the real estate sales area in October last year has begun to be year-on-year. Negative. This will have a negative impact on the market. At the same time, the industry's surge in the past two years has increased the demand for a large number of low-end markets in advance, which will lead to a decrease in the demand for new popularization in 2018. In the past two years, the weather has been hot, and the probability of a third hot weather is extremely low."
ã€Responses】
Focus on smart air conditioning market upgrade products to explore new growth points
Liu Buchen said that the healthy development of the air-conditioning industry depends on the harmony of the industry. The price war in the air-conditioning industry is not only unfavorable for manufacturers to fully withdraw funds, but also has an adverse impact on air-conditioning R&D and production. Frequent price wars will only trap air conditioners. In the long run, dealers, especially agents, will lose their profits. At the same time, it will also overdraw the purchasing power of consumers and reduce the profit margin of the business.
However, fortunately, many air-conditioning companies have accelerated their transformation and upgrading, focusing on frequency conversion, energy efficiency, intelligence and health.
For example, Midea's recently released air-conditioning products such as the Tianxing series, the comfort star series, and the intelligent king cabinet series are all intelligent. Haier Group's 2018 cold year opening meeting also targeted the new products in the "smart" and "self-cleaning" fields; TCL air conditioning also said that the 2018 main push is to adjust the structure around intelligent high-end, supplemented by health functions.
In fact, the proportion of sales of smart air conditioners in recent years has also increased significantly year by year, and gradually occupied the mainstream market. National Information Center data shows that the smart air-conditioning market has accounted for 20% of the total, and sales accounted for nearly 25%. In the cold year of 2017, the sales of smart air conditioners accounted for about 80%, and the upward trend continued.
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